Polls Show State-by-State Picture of Brazil's Presidential Race

As Brazil's 2026 presidential race enters its final stretch before the first round, fresh polling has offered a more detailed, state-by-state view of the contest. The firm Quaest has published a map illustrating how the presidential dispute currently stands across the country's various states, giving observers a regional breakdown rather than just a single national figure.

In parallel, the pollster Datafolha has zeroed in on São Paulo, Brazil's most populous state and a politically significant battleground. Its findings indicate that a candidate named Flávio currently leads both the first-round scenario and a hypothetical runoff, or second round, suggesting a comparatively strong position in that specific state.

Under Brazil's electoral system, a presidential candidate must secure an absolute majority of valid votes in the first round to avoid a runoff between the top two finishers. Datafolha's data on São Paulo speaks only to that state, though such regional results are often watched closely as indicators within the broader national picture.

Commentary from journalist Josias de Souza added a further layer to the coverage, focusing on President Lula's position as the first-round vote nears. Josias characterised Lula's stance as one shaped by an illusion — implying a mismatch between the president's apparent expectations and the on-the-ground electoral reality reflected in current polling.

Taken together, these three elements — a national state-by-state map from Quaest, a São Paulo-specific poll from Datafolha, and analytical commentary from a veteran political journalist — illustrate how the 2026 race is being scrutinised from multiple angles simultaneously. Polling aggregation across states allows analysts to identify regional variation that a single national number would obscure, which is particularly relevant in a federation as large and diverse as Brazil.

With the first round still approaching, further polling is expected from multiple firms, each potentially producing somewhat different figures due to variations in sampling and methodology. For now, the picture emerging from this coverage is one of an actively contested national race, with at least one state, São Paulo, showing a clear frontrunner according to Datafolha's latest numbers.