Polls Show State-by-State Picture of Brazil's Presidential Race

With Brazil's 2026 presidential election approaching, new polling data is giving a clearer picture of the race in different states. The polling company Quaest has released a map showing how the presidential contest currently stands across the country.

Separately, the polling firm Datafolha has focused on the state of São Paulo. According to its results, a politician named Flávio is currently the frontrunner there. He leads in scenarios for both the first and a possible second round of voting.

In Brazilian presidential elections, if no candidate wins more than half the votes in the first round, the top two candidates go to a second round, or runoff. Datafolha's numbers suggest Flávio would lead in either situation in São Paulo.

Meanwhile, journalist Josias de Souza commented on President Lula's position as the first round approaches. He suggested Lula is facing the vote with what Josias called an illusion — meaning Lula may hold a hopeful belief that does not match reality on the ground.

These reports form part of the wider coverage of the 2026 race, which is being closely tracked through national and regional surveys. Polls like Quaest's map help show not just national trends, but also differences between individual states, which can matter a lot in a country as large and diverse as Brazil.

As the first round approaches, more polling is expected. Analysts and journalists will continue comparing results from different firms, since each survey can show slightly different numbers depending on methodology and location. For now, the available data points to a competitive national race, with Flávio holding a clear lead specifically in São Paulo state, according to Datafolha's numbers.