Poll: Lula Leads Flávio Bolsonaro in Key Brazilian State
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A new opinion poll conducted by BTG and Nexus has offered updated insight into Brazil's 2026 presidential contest, focusing on the country's most populous and electorally significant state, São Paulo.
According to the survey, President Lula's level of support has remained stable in recent weeks, showing little fluctuation compared to earlier polling.
By contrast, support for Flávio Bolsonaro has shown a slight upward trend in both possible rounds of the election, according to the same data.
In a simulated second-round runoff between the two, Lula was shown leading with 59% of voter support, compared to 32% for Flávio.
São Paulo is described as Brazil's largest electoral college, a term referring to the state's outsized role in national elections due to its large number of eligible voters.
Because of its size, political trends in São Paulo are often seen as an important indicator of broader national sentiment ahead of presidential elections.
While Lula's lead remains substantial, the modest rise in Flávio's numbers could be interpreted as an early sign of shifting momentum in his campaign.
Polling firms such as BTG and Nexus regularly track public opinion to gauge how candidates might perform if the election were held immediately, though actual results can change as the vote nears.
The 2026 election is still some time away, and analysts caution that early polling numbers can shift significantly as campaigns develop and candidates become more widely known to voters.
Nonetheless, this latest poll adds to a growing body of data suggesting Lula continues to hold a clear advantage over Flávio in São Paulo, even as his opponent shows some gains.
Further surveys are expected in the coming months, offering additional snapshots of public opinion as Brazil's political landscape continues to take shape ahead of next year's vote.
Vocabulary7 words
- opinion poll
- a survey asking people what they think, used to guess an election result
- stable
- staying about the same; not changing much
- runoff
- a final vote between the top two candidates
- electoral college
- a voting area or group that plays a big role in an election
- indicator
- something that shows or suggests a trend
- campaign
- the effort a candidate makes to win an election
- advantage
- a stronger or better position than someone else
Quiz
Answer key
1. It has remained stable 2. It is Brazil's largest electoral college 3. False
Discussion questions
- Why might a large state like São Paulo be seen as an important indicator for a national election?
- What factors do you think could cause a candidate's poll numbers to rise or fall over time?
- How reliable do you think early opinion polls are at predicting final election results?
- What role do polling companies play in shaping public perception of candidates before an election?