Poll: Lula Leads Flávio Bolsonaro in Key Brazilian State
Listen to the story
A new opinion poll by BTG and Nexus has given fresh details about Brazil's 2026 presidential race.
The poll focuses on the state of São Paulo, which is described as Brazil's largest electoral college, meaning it has the most voters of any state.
According to the poll, current President Lula's support has become stable, showing little change from earlier surveys.
Meanwhile, support for Flávio Bolsonaro has moved slightly upward in both possible rounds of voting.
In a simulated runoff, or second round, Lula leads with 59% of the vote, compared to 32% for Flávio.
A runoff is the final vote between the top two candidates, held if no one wins a majority in the first round.
The poll suggests Lula still holds a strong advantage over Flávio in this key region.
However, the fact that Flávio's numbers are rising could be seen as a positive sign for his campaign.
São Paulo's importance comes from its large population, which gives it many votes in national elections.
This kind of poll is used to measure public opinion before people actually vote.
More surveys are expected as Brazil moves closer to the 2026 election.
Results from different polling companies can vary, but this one focuses specifically on São Paulo voters.
Vocabulary6 words
- opinion poll
- a survey that asks people what they think about something
- electoral college
- a group of voters or a voting area used in elections
- stable
- staying the same; not changing much
- runoff
- a final vote between the top two candidates
- advantage
- a better position than someone else
- campaign
- the work a candidate does to try to win an election
Quiz
Answer key
1. It has become stable 2. Brazil's largest electoral college 3. 32%
Fill-in-the-blank listening
Play the audio again and fill in the missing words as you listen.
A new _____ by BTG and Nexus has given fresh details about Brazil's 2026 presidential race.
The poll focuses on the state of São Paulo, described as Brazil's largest _____, meaning it has the most voters of any state.
According to the poll, current President Lula's support has become _____, showing little change from earlier surveys.
Meanwhile, support for Flávio Bolsonaro has moved slightly upward in both possible rounds of voting.
In a simulated _____, or second round, Lula leads with 59% of the vote, compared to 32% for Flávio.
A runoff is the final vote between the top two candidates, held if no one wins a majority in the first round.
The poll suggests Lula still holds a strong _____ over Flávio in this key region.
However, the fact that Flávio's numbers are rising could be seen as a positive sign for his _____.
This kind of poll is used to measure public opinion before people actually vote.
More surveys are expected as Brazil moves closer to the 2026 election.