India Faces Pressure Over Russian Oil and US Tariffs

India is once again caught in a difficult position, squeezed between the threat of steep tariffs from US President Donald Trump and its continued reliance on Russian oil imports.

Trump has warned that he could impose a 100% tariff on Indian goods, an extraordinary trade penalty aimed at pressuring New Delhi to cut its purchases of Russian crude oil. China faces a similar threat, as both nations have become major buyers of discounted Russian oil since Western sanctions were imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The tariff threat forms part of a broader US strategy to isolate Russia economically by targeting the countries that continue to fund its war effort through energy purchases. Washington argues that reducing demand from India and China would significantly limit Moscow's oil revenues.

Separately, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has publicly thanked Trump for signing a new bill that introduces additional sanctions on Russia, calling the legislation 'critically important.' The measure is expected to tighten restrictions further on Russian trade and financial activity.

As sanctions pressure mounts, analysts suggest Russia may increasingly depend on its allies in Africa to maintain trade partnerships and access markets that have become harder to reach through traditional Western channels.

For India, the stakes are considerable. The country has built a substantial energy relationship with Russia, taking advantage of discounted oil prices to meet its domestic needs. At the same time, India has cultivated a strong trade and strategic partnership with the United States, one it is unlikely to want to jeopardise.

This is not a new dilemma for New Delhi. India has consistently sought to maintain a policy of strategic autonomy, avoiding taking firm sides between Russia and Western powers throughout the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

Whether the renewed tariff threats will force a change in India's oil-buying habits remains uncertain. Much may depend on how seriously Washington intends to enforce the proposed penalties, and how India weighs the economic costs of compliance against the benefits of continued cheap energy imports.

The coming weeks are likely to reveal whether this latest pressure campaign produces any meaningful shift in India's approach, or whether it becomes another chapter in the country's long balancing act between global powers.