Datafolha Poll: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Close in Some Groups

With Brazil's 2026 presidential election approaching, the polling institute Datafolha has published fresh data examining how a potential second-round contest between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro might unfold across different segments of the electorate.

In Brazil's electoral system, if no candidate secures an outright majority in the first round, the two leading contenders advance to a runoff, competing head-to-head for the presidency. According to the new survey, this hypothetical matchup between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro—son of former president Jair Bolsonaro—shows a notably tighter margin within specific voter segments, groups defined by factors such as region, age or income level.

While the summary did not detail exact figures for every category, it indicated that support for the two potential candidates is converging in ways that could prove significant as the campaign progresses. Flávio Bolsonaro, a sitting senator, has increasingly been positioned as a possible standard-bearer for the political movement associated with his father, who remains a dominant force in Brazil's right-wing politics.

Datafolha additionally carried out a separate survey concentrated on Lula's home state, the region where the president was born and where he has traditionally enjoyed strong political support. Although further specifics were not provided, such localized polling is often used to gauge whether a candidate's regional ties translate into a durable electoral advantage.

Separately, political observers have reported that Lula's campaign intends to emphasize a strategy of strategic voting during the final week before the first round. This approach involves urging like-minded voters to consolidate support behind the candidate deemed most capable of winning, rather than dispersing votes among multiple contenders with similar platforms.

Such tactics are frequently deployed in multi-candidate races, where vote-splitting among ideologically aligned voters can inadvertently benefit rivals. Analysts suggest that Lula's team may be seeking to consolidate its base early, anticipating a competitive run-up to the first round of voting.

As Brazil's electoral calendar moves forward, additional polling data is expected in the coming weeks, potentially clarifying how the dynamics between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro—or other candidates—are shifting across the country's diverse political and demographic landscape. Both campaigns are likely to adjust their messaging in response to these emerging trends as the first round nears.