Datafolha Poll: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Close in Some Groups
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Brazil's 2026 presidential election is drawing closer, and the polling company Datafolha has released new data on how a possible runoff vote might look.
A runoff, or second round, happens in Brazil when no candidate wins a majority in the first round of voting. The top two finishers then compete again for the presidency.
According to the latest survey, the race between current president Lula and senator Flávio Bolsonaro is especially tight within certain demographic groups, meaning specific segments of voters based on things like age, region, or income.
Flávio Bolsonaro is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro and has become a prominent political figure in his own right. He is being considered as a potential candidate to represent the Bolsonaro political camp.
The report did not specify exact numbers for every group, but it highlighted that the margin, or difference in support, narrows significantly among some segments of the electorate.
Datafolha also conducted a separate poll focused on Lula's home state, where he was born. Details of that survey were not fully outlined in the available summary.
Meanwhile, political analysts have discussed Lula's campaign strategy for the final week before the first round. According to reports, his team plans to promote what is called useful voting, a strategy encouraging supporters to back the candidate most likely to win, rather than a less competitive option.
This approach is common in elections with multiple candidates, as parties try to avoid splitting votes among similar-minded voters.
With the first round still weeks away, more polling data is expected to be released, offering a clearer picture of how the race is developing across different groups and regions of the country.
Vocabulary5 words
- Datafolha
- a well-known company that surveys public opinion in Brazil
- runoff
- a second election between the top two candidates
- demographic
- relating to a specific group of people, like by age or place
- margin
- the size of the difference between two things, like votes
- useful voting
- choosing the candidate most likely to win instead of a favorite
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Quiz
Answer key
1. A second round between the top two candidates 2. The race between Lula and Flávio is very close 3. Promoting useful voting
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Fill-in-the-blank listening
Play the audio again and fill in the missing words as you listen.
Brazil's 2026 presidential election is drawing closer, and Datafolha has released new data on a possible _____ vote.
A runoff happens when no candidate wins a _____ in the first round.
The race between Lula and senator Flávio _____ is especially tight in certain groups.
Flávio Bolsonaro is the son of former president Jair _____.
The report highlighted that the _____ narrows significantly among some voters.
Datafolha also conducted a poll focused on Lula's home _____.
Lula's team plans to promote what is called _____ voting.
This strategy encourages supporters to back the candidate most likely to _____.
This approach is common in elections with multiple _____.
More polling data is expected before the first _____.
Discussion questions
- Why might polls be closer among some voter groups than others?
- What could explain Flávio Bolsonaro's rise as a political figure?
- Do you think 'useful voting' strategies help or hurt democratic choice?
- How important are early polls in shaping how people vote?
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