Poll Shows Mixed Results for Lula and Flávio in Key States

A new opinion poll from Quaest reveals contrasting levels of support for Brazil's leading presidential candidates just days before the first round of voting. The survey shows significant regional variation across the country.

According to the poll, Flávio holds a lead over President Lula in both Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, two of Brazil's most populous and politically influential states.

The picture is reversed in Pernambuco, where Lula is shown to be ahead of Flávio, reflecting the regional differences that often shape Brazilian presidential races.

Meanwhile, in Minas Gerais and the Federal District, the poll indicates a technical tie between the two candidates. Because the gap between them falls within the survey's margin of error, neither can be considered a clear leader in these regions based on this data alone.

The Quaest survey also identifies at least one state where the gap is particularly wide: there, Lula's voter support is reported to be almost three times higher than Flávio's, underlining the sharp polarisation in some parts of the electorate.

The findings arrive just four days before the first round of the presidential election, a period in which polling data typically draws heavy media attention as parties and campaigns make final appeals to voters.

Polls such as this one are conducted using a representative sample of the population and are intended to give an estimate of voting intentions rather than a precise forecast. Analysts caution that results can shift in the closing days of a campaign, and actual turnout and last-minute decisions by undecided voters can influence the final outcome differently from what surveys suggest.

As the campaign enters its final stretch, both candidates and their teams are likely to focus efforts on the states where the contest remains closest, particularly Minas Gerais and the Federal District, where the technical tie leaves the outcome uncertain according to current polling.