New Polls Show Early Numbers for Brazil's 2026 Presidential Race

Brazil's political landscape is coming into focus more than a year ahead of the 2026 presidential election, as new polling data begins to map out potential scenarios for voters.

The polling company Quaest has published detailed presidential race numbers covering 17 states as well as the Federal District, the administrative region that includes the capital, Brasília. These state-level figures are being closely watched as an early indicator of regional political trends heading into the campaign.

The release forms part of a broader wave of surveys examining how Brazilians might vote in the 2026 contest, at a time when public interest in the country's political future is already intensifying.

Separately, a survey conducted by Indexa in partnership with Broadcast focused specifically on a hypothetical runoff scenario. Under Brazil's electoral system, if no candidate secures an outright majority in the first round of voting, the two leading candidates advance to a second, decisive round.

In this simulated runoff, current president Lula was shown leading with 46% of voter support, compared with 41% for Flávio Bolsonaro, giving him a five-percentage-point advantage in this particular survey.

Political observers caution that such figures should be treated as preliminary and subject to change, given that the election remains far off and campaign dynamics can shift significantly over time. Polling numbers taken so far in advance often reflect current name recognition and sentiment rather than firm, lasting voter commitment.

Analysts typically recommend comparing results across multiple polling organisations, rather than relying on a single survey, to identify more reliable patterns. The combination of Quaest's state-by-state data and the Indexa/Broadcast runoff numbers offers an early, if incomplete, picture of how the 2026 race may unfold.

As campaign season approaches, further polls are expected to be released regularly, tracking shifts in public opinion as candidates position themselves and policy debates take shape across the country.