Poll Shows Tarcísio Leading São Paulo Governor Race
Listen to the story
A new opinion poll has given the first numbers for the race for governor of São Paulo. The poll, from Atlas/Estadão, was published ahead of the 2026 election.
According to the poll, Tarcísio de Freitas has 53.3% of voting intentions. His main rival, Fernando Haddad, has 40.1%.
This result is for the first round of the election. In Brazil's voting system, a candidate can win outright in the first round if they get more than half of valid votes.
With Tarcísio above 50%, some analysts and Petistas, or supporters of Haddad's Workers' Party (PT), already believe the race for São Paulo may be settled without a runoff.
Because of this, Petistas are reportedly planning to bring in President Lula to help mobilise voters and boost Haddad's numbers before election day.
São Paulo is Brazil's most populous state, and its governor's race is closely watched as a sign of the country's political mood.
The poll adds pressure on Haddad's campaign to close the gap before votes are cast. It also raises questions about whether other candidates could still change the picture in the first round.
No further details on sample size or dates of the poll were given in the source summary.
Vocabulary7 words
- opinion poll
- a survey asking people who they will vote for
- rival
- a person competing against someone else
- first round
- the first vote; can decide the winner if one person gets over 50%
- runoff
- a second vote between the top two candidates
- mobilise
- to organise people to take action, like voting
- campaign
- organised effort to win an election
- sample size
- the number of people asked in a survey
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Quiz
Answer key
1. Voting intentions for São Paulo governor 2. Because Tarcísio's support is above 50% 3. True
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Fill-in-the-blank listening
Play the audio again and fill in the missing words as you listen.
A new opinion poll has given the first numbers for the race for _____ of São Paulo.
The poll, from Atlas/Estadão, was published ahead of the 2026 _____.
According to the poll, Tarcísio de Freitas has _____% of voting intentions.
His main rival, Fernando Haddad, has _____% .
This result is for the _____ round of the election.
In Brazil's voting system, a candidate can win outright if they get more than half of _____ votes.
With Tarcísio above 50%, some Petistas already believe the race may be settled without a _____.
Petistas are reportedly planning to bring in President _____ to help mobilise voters.
São Paulo is Brazil's most _____ state.
Discussion questions
- Why might a poll showing over 50% support change how a campaign is run?
- What role can a national leader like a president play in a state election?
- Why is the São Paulo governor's race considered important nationally?
- What questions would you ask about this poll's methodology before trusting it?
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