Poll Shows Lula and Flávio Tied in Brazil Election Race
Listen to the story
A new poll by BTG/Nexus shows that President Lula and candidate Flávio are tied in Brazil's presidential race.
According to the poll, the two men have equal support in both the first and second rounds of the election.
In Brazil's election system, a second round happens if no candidate wins enough votes in the first round.
The poll's numbers come from data collected last week, showing how close the race has become.
While the official poll shows a tie, online prediction markets tell a different story.
On Kalshi, a website where people bet money on future events, Flávio has a 59% probability of winning.
On Polymarket, another prediction market, Flávio's chance of winning is 58%.
These numbers suggest that many people expect Flávio to win, even though the official poll shows a close race.
Prediction markets use real money, so some experts believe they can show what people truly think will happen.
However, polls and prediction markets do not always agree, and both can change quickly before an election.
The article did not give more details about the candidates or their policies.
Brazil's presidential election is expected to take place in 2026, based on the source's publication date.
Vocabulary10 words
- poll
- a survey that asks many people about their opinions
- candidate
- a person who is trying to win an election
- tied
- having exactly the same result or score
- round
- one stage of a voting process
- prediction market
- a website where people bet money on future results
- bet
- to risk money hoping to win more if you guess correctly
- probability
- how likely it is that something will happen
- data
- facts and numbers collected for study
- expert
- a person who knows a lot about a subject
- policy
- a plan of action by a government or leader
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Quiz
Answer key
1. They are tied in both election rounds 2. Flávio has a higher chance of winning 3. True
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Fill-in-the-blank listening
Play the audio again and fill in the missing words as you listen.
A new _____ by BTG/Nexus shows that President Lula and candidate Flávio are tied in Brazil's presidential race.
According to the poll, the two men have equal support in both the first and second _____ of the election.
In Brazil's election system, a second round happens if no candidate wins enough votes in the first round.
The poll's numbers come from _____ collected last week, showing how close the race has become.
While the official poll shows a tie, online _____ tell a different story.
On Kalshi, a website where people _____ money on future events, Flávio has a 59% probability of winning.
On Polymarket, another prediction market, Flávio's chance of winning is 58%.
These numbers suggest that many people expect Flávio to win, even though the official poll shows a close race.
Prediction markets use real money, so some _____ believe they can show what people truly think will happen.
However, polls and prediction markets do not always agree, and both can change quickly before an election.
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