Poll Shows Flávio Ahead of Lula for 2026 Runoff
Listen to the story
A new poll from Futura has measured voting intentions for Brazil's 2026 presidential election.
The poll focuses on a possible second-round vote, known as a runoff, between Flávio and Lula.
According to the results, Flávio currently leads with 49% of voting intentions, while Lula has 43.5%.
This kind of survey asks a sample of people who they would vote for if the election were held now.
The poll is one of several recent surveys tracking public opinion ahead of the 2026 vote.
News outlets have also been comparing this data with past elections, especially the 2022 race between Lula and Bolsonaro.
In that election, polls in the final week showed close numbers between the two candidates, and the result was decided by a small margin.
Analysts often use these comparisons to understand how public opinion can shift in the final stretch of a campaign.
It is important to remember that a poll is only a snapshot of opinion at one moment in time.
Voting intentions can change significantly as the campaign continues and candidates make more public appearances.
Because Brazil's election is still months away, more polling data is expected before the actual vote.
Experts also caution that different pollsters can produce different results depending on their methods and the people they survey.
For now, this Futura poll offers an early look at how the runoff might unfold if held today.
However, the final outcome will depend on how opinions evolve closer to election day in 2026.
Vocabulary7 words
- poll
- a study that asks people questions to learn opinions
- voting intentions
- what people say they plan to vote for
- runoff
- a second round of voting between the top two candidates
- surveys
- studies that collect people's opinions
- candidates
- people running to be elected
- campaign
- the period when candidates try to win votes
- polling data
- information collected from polls
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Quiz
Answer key
1. Voting intentions for a 2026 runoff 2. Flávio, by 5.5 points 3. False
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Fill-in-the-blank listening
Play the audio again and fill in the missing words as you listen.
A new _____ from Futura has measured voting intentions for Brazil's 2026 presidential election.
The poll focuses on a possible second-round vote, known as a _____, between Flávio and Lula.
According to the results, Flávio currently leads with 49% of _____, while Lula has 43.5%.
This kind of survey asks a sample of people who they would _____ for if the election were held now.
The poll is one of several recent _____ tracking public opinion ahead of the 2026 vote.
News outlets have also been comparing this data with past elections, especially the 2022 race between Lula and _____.
In that election, polls in the final week showed close numbers between the two _____.
Voting intentions can change significantly as the _____ continues and candidates make more public appearances.
Because Brazil's election is still months away, more _____ is expected before the actual vote.
For now, this Futura poll offers an early look at how the _____ might unfold if held today.
Discussion questions
- Why do you think polls are published so far before an election?
- How reliable do you think early polls are for predicting final results?
- What factors could cause voting intentions to change before 2026?
- Why might comparing 2026 polls to the 2022 election be useful?
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